The incumbent, incumbent party, whether the incumbent is seeking reelection, the median race rating and the state’s partisan lean in each of these 10 key races State The 10 governorships most likely to flip parties in 2022 This list could certainly change, but at this point, the GOP is playing on friendlier turf, as the table below shows. Based on early race ratings data from Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, we’ve identified 10 states that are especially competitive, six of which Democrats currently control. Moreover, Democrats hold more highly competitive seats, which could easily flip. That said, even though Republicans have two of the toughest seats to defend this cycle, they also have their own juicy target in Kansas, the reddest state Democrats control. After all, while gubernatorial races have become more nationalized, voters still show a greater tendency to break from their baseline partisan preferences in these races than in contests for Congress, meaning a poor nominee can still cause the seemingly favored party to stumble. Meanwhile, primary battles in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could also hurt GOP efforts to capture Democratic-held governorships. However, GOP gains in 2022 are not a given.Īs it turns out, the two most likely seats to flip may be Maryland and Massachusetts, where popular Republican governors are leaving office, and the GOP could end up nominating candidates who struggle to appeal in those deep-blue states.
In fact, they currently control 28 governorships to the Democrats’ 22, and with 36 governorships up this year, they could widen that advantage, especially considering that President Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s and the national political environment looks friendly toward Republicans. The governor’s mansion has recently been a strong point for Republicans, as they’ve held a majority of the country’s governorships since the 2010 election. Michael Robinson Chavez / The Washington Post via Getty Images Democrats are favored to flip governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts, but they face tough challenges to capture or retain the governorships in eight other states.
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